Why intuition can mislead us
Quick mental shortcuts help decisions, but they can also cause predictable mistakes. Anchoring happens when an initial number has too much influence on a later estimate.
Confirmation bias can favor evidence that supports an existing belief. The availability heuristic can make dramatic or recent examples feel more common than they are.
Better questions
Look for evidence that challenges your conclusion. Ask whether the first number is meaningful and compare general rates rather than relying on memorable anecdotes.
Takeaway
Knowing the name of a bias does not make us immune. Good questions are more useful than labels.
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